New U.S. Bipartisan Poll on Prospects for Peace

new opinion poll on prospects for peace in the Middle east

A new national poll (PDF, PowerPoint) of likely voters underscores the importance of the United States ’ relationship with Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process . In the days just before the naval incident in the Mediterranean Sea, a consistent majority said the United States should side with Israel in its ongoing conflict with the Palestinians.

Jennifer Laszlo Mizrahi said “There have been 62 years of challenging history between Israel and her Arab neighbors. One more bad day in that conflict does not take away one bit from the need to solve that issue. That is why there should be face-to-face negotiations between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Palestinians leaders now – so that there can be a better future for both sides.”

Before the weekend incident near the Gaza coast, a strong majority - 56 percent of Americans - said they believe the United States “should” take Israel ’s side in the conflict. That compares to only 7 percent who believe the United States should take the Palestinians’ side. Fully 56 percent of Americans personally support Israel in the ongoing conflict.

Additionally, 52 percent of Americans agree that Israel ’s government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is committed to reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians, while only 31 percent believe that the Palestinian Authority, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, shares that same commitment to peace.

“While it's always been assumed that a two-state solution in the Middle East is in the best interests of the United States, this polling data shows that Americans are not eager to embrace a Palestinian nation controlled by a terrorist organization like Hamas,” said Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies.

By a greater then 2-1 ratio, Americans said the culture of hate among Palestinians, which glorifies terrorists to be a greater obstacle to moving ahead in peace negotiations then Jewish housing built in East Jerusalem .

Among Republican voters, the main reasons for their positive outlook toward Israel centered on Israel ’s commitment to addressing terrorism: 60 percent respect Israel being an ally in the war on terrorism and 50 percent said Israel is serious about protecting its citizens from terror.

The main reasons Democrats (52 percent) and independents (48 percent) cited for viewing Israel positively is their support for a two-state solution for achieving peace with the Palestinians.

The surveys were conducted jointly by Public Opinion Strategies (POS) and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research May 26-27, 2010 with 800 respondents who identified themselves as likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points.

TIP NATIONAL ADD-ON QUESTIONS
Field Dates: May 26-27, 2010
N = 800 Likely Voters
Project #: 10388
Margin of Error = + 3.46%

How likely would you say you are to vote in the November election later this year? ...
86% VERY LIKELY
14% SOMEWHAT LIKELY

N1. Now, thinking about the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in the Middle East , please tell me whether, in general, you consider yourself to be...

30% a strong supporter of Israel
23% a supporter of Israel
4% a supporter of the Palestinians
2% a strong supporter of the Palestinians
8% NEITHER, LEAN ISRAEL
2% NEITHER, LEAN PALESTINE
22% HARD NEITHER
7% DON’T KNOW
2% REFUSED

53% TOTAL ISRAEL
6% TOTAL PALESTINIANS

N2. Now, thinking about the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinians in the Middle East, please tell me whether, in general, you think America should be...

31% a strong supporter of Israel
25% a supporter of Israel
5% a supporter of the Palestinians
2% a strong supporter of the Palestinians
6% NEITHER, LEAN ISRAEL
1% NEITHER, LEAN PALESTINE
21% HARD NEITHER
7% DON’T KNOW
2% REFUSED

56% TOTAL ISRAEL
7% TOTAL PALESTINIANS

N3. And, how committed do you think the Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is to reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians? Is it...

10% VERY COMMITTED
43% SOMEWHAT COMMITTED
20% JUST A LITTLE COMMITTED
15% NOT COMMITTED AT ALL
11% UNDECIDED/DON’T KNOW
1% REFUSED

53% TOTAL COMMITTED
35% TOTAL NOT COMMITTED

N4. And, how committed do you think the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank and is led by President Mahmoud Abbas, is to reaching a peace agreement with Israel ? Is it...

4% VERY COMMITTED
27% SOMEWHAT COMMITTED
22% JUST A LITTLE COMMITTED
33% NOT AT ALL COMMITTED?
11% DON’T KNOW
2% REFUSED

31% TOTAL COMMITTED
55% TOTAL LITTLE/NOT COMMITTED

N5. Which of the following is the greater obstacle to moving ahead on peace negotiations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
The culture of hate among the Palestinians that glorifies terrorists.
…or…
The Israeli government building Jewish housing in mostly Palestinian areas of East Jerusalem .

38% STRONGLY CULTURE OF HATE
17% SOMEWHAT CULTURE OF HATE
14% SOMEWHAT BUILDING HOUSING
12% STRONGLY BUILDING HOUSING
16% DON’T KNOW
4% REFUSED

54% TOTAL CULTURE OF HATE
25% TOTAL BUILDING HOUSING

N6. Now, which ONE of the following statements by the Israeli Prime Minister would give you the most positive impression of Israel ?

26% Israel supports a two-state solution where both Israelis and Palestinians can live in peace.
24% Israel stands by the United States as an ally and fights against Islamic extremists.
22% Israel is committed to preserving its own security and protecting its citizens from terrorist attacks.
19% Israel shares our values, including freedom of religion, speech, press and right to vote.
2% All of the above
2% None of the above
3% Don't know
2% Refused

N7. And, which of the following statements would give you the NEXT most positive impression of Israel ?

26% Israel stands by the United States as an ally and fights against Islamic extremists.
24% Israel shares our values, including freedom of religion, speech, press and right to vote.
21% Israel is committed to preserving its own security and protecting its citizens from terrorist attacks.
16% Israel supports a two-state solution where both Israelis and Palestinians can live in peace.
1% All of the above
1% None of the above
2% Don't know
-- Refused

Now, I have just a few more questions for statistical purposes only...

D1. In what year were you born?

7% 18 - 24
15% 25 - 34
23% 35 - 44
17% 45 - 54
19% 55 - 64
18% 65 AND ABOVE
1% REFUSED

D2. And what was the last grade you completed in school?
1% SOME GRADE SCHOOL (1-8)
3% SOME HIGH SCHOOL (9-11)
24% GRADUATED HIGH SCHOOL (9-12)
2% TECHNICAL OR VOCATIONAL SCHOOL (12)
25% SOME COLLEGE (13-15)
27% GRADUATED COLLEGE (16)
19% GRADUATE/PROFESSION AL SCHOOL (16+)
* REFUSED

27% HIGH SCHOOL OR LESS
27% SOME COLLEGE
46 % COLLEGE+

D3. In politics today, do you usually think of yourself as... a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent or something else?

17% STRONG REPUBLICAN
10% NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN
11% LEAN REPUBLICAN
17% SOMETHING ELSE/INDEPENDENT/ UNDECLARED
11% LEAN DEMOCRAT
9% NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCRAT
24% STRONG DEMOCRAT
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

38% TOTAL REPUBLICAN
43% TOTAL DEMOCRAT

D4. Generally speaking, do you consider yourself to be conservative, moderate ...or... liberal ...on most issues

23% VERY CONSERVATIVE
20% SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE
33% MODERATE
12% SOMEWHAT LIBERAL
9% VERY LIBERAL
2% DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

43% TOTAL CONSERVATIVE
22% TOTAL MODERATE/LIBERAL

D6. On the issue of abortion, do you consider yourself to be...
Pro-life ... or ... Pro-choice

37% STRONGLY PRO-LIFE
10% SOMEWHAT PRO-LIFE
12% SOMEWHAT PRO-CHOICE
35% STRONGLY PRO-CHOICE
4% NOT SURE/NEITHER
2% REFUSED

47% TOTAL PRO-LIFE
47% TOTAL PRO-CHOICE

D7. Regardless of how you may feel today...for which of the following candidates did you vote for President...

43% John McCain
...OR...
49% Barack Obama
* Bob Barr
1% Ralph Nader
2% SOMEONE ELSE
3% DID NOT VOTE
* DON'T KNOW/DON'T RECALL
2% REFUSED

D8. What is your current marital status?

20% Single, never married
61% Now married
2% Living together, not married
9% Divorced
1% Separated
7% Widowed
1% Refused

39% TOTAL NOT MARRIED

D9. And, do you own or rent your home?

73% OWN
24% RENT
1% DON'T KNOW
1% REFUSED

D10. Other than being an American, what is your main ethnic or racial heritage?

12% AFRICAN AMERICAN OR BLACK
76% WHITE
6% HISPANIC AMERICAN OR LATINO
1% ASIAN AMERICAN
3% OTHER
2% REFUSED

D11. And for statistical purposes only...is your total annual household income greater or less than $60,000 dollars?

10% UNDER $20,000
19% BETWEEN $20,000 - $40,000
12% BETWEEN $40,000 - $60,000
15% BETWEEN $60,000 - $80,000
16% BETWEEN $80,000 - $100,000
18% OVER $100,000
10% REFUSED

29% UNDER $40K
27% $40K-$80K
34% $80K+

D12. GENDER Are you employed outside of the home, are you a homemaker, or are you retired?

30% MALE/EMPLOYED
1% MALE/HOMEMAKER
11% MALE/RETIRED
5% MALE/NOT IN LABOR FORCE
1% MALE/REFUSED
29% FEMALE/EMPLOYED
9% FEMALE/HOMEMAKER
12% FEMALE/RETIRED
1% FEMALE/NOT IN LABOR FORCE
1% FEMALE/REFUSED

48% TOTAL MALE
52% TOTAL FEMALE