new map: how to change the world: China, India, new world order by George Zhibin Gu

Is world learning anything real from global financial crisis? How to walk out the global financial and political mess? How to change the world? What is the next stage world economic, political, and business map? What is the possible outcome in the evolving relations between developed nations and emerging giants China and India? Get provocative knowledge and insights.

George Zhibin Gu 顾志斌: new book: China and the new world order 中国及新世界秩序

CHINA AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER:

How Entrepreneurship, Globalization, and Borderless Business
are Reshaping China and the Word (Book Excerpts)
中国及新世界秩序

by George Zhibin Gu

November 8, 2006
taken from: http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/ed...2006/1108.html

A New World Order in the Making?

Is a new world order in the making? The answer: yes. Up to now, only about 20% of the world's people have attained solid development, growth, and modernity. Now the rest are catching up at an unprecedented speed. This sudden surge in so many late developers suggests a brave new world in the making.

Several Key Changes

Huge changes are happening, within a vastly expanded sphere for all people and nations. We can identify four in particular.

First, wealth making through industrialization and commercialization has become a universal thing. For a long time, products made in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany dominated global markets. Today, products made in China, Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia, among other developing nations, are increasingly flooding the world, changing the global production map again.

Behind this changing map, interestingly, many poor nations have rapidly taken on active roles in the global economy. But their biggest weapon remains low-cost labor, which provides a working platform for cooperation and sharing between the rich and poor nations.

Today, most developing nations are extremely limited in resources and strengths. Hence, for them, this cost gap is a survival gap. In fact, other than cheap labor and hard work, they have few advantages. However, it turns out that low labor cost and hard work do make a difference.

For now, manufacturing activities, especially in the low end of the value chains, increasingly shift to the poor nations, while the developed nations focus more and more on a service and high-tech-oriented economy. This giant change, though only beginning, will impact the future world economy even more.

Second, all regional markets are connected to each other. Interdependence is opening up the old national boundaries dramatically. Most profoundly, the flows of capital, technology, goods, and people have reached a new level. Moving from survival of the fittest to rational collaboration and sharing, life on the earth will never be the same again.

Third, wealth making has gained a record-high status. Consequently, old ideology is lost to the new economic waves. This is a truly golden age for capitalists anywhere, who can reach all corners of the world for the first time in human history.

Multinationals are gaining unprecedented power in shaping global life. Their share of trade approaches 50% and is still on the rise. Actually, they are warmly courted by all nations, rich or poor. Courting them has become a high art for all governments. The new picture is this: Incentives move the world-not politics, not ideology, not empty words.

Fourth, hundreds of millions of ordinary people everywhere have joined the entrepreneurial army. Starting a business is no longer for the privileged few as in the past, especially in the developing nations. Furthermore, individual private initiatives are undermining state domination especially in many less developed nations. This is hugely significant especially given that traditional bureaucratic powers in many developing nations have been strong and abusive.

Above all, such changes have happened within a short time, which is possible only in an increasingly globalized world. Naturally, more consequences will follow.

Interdependence and Beyond

The sudden surge in late developers is bound to create ripple effects. Since well over 5 billion people are involved, development in these countries will be much more influential than ever before.

But this new growth for most late developers started from extremely low levels. As a result, achieving full development, growth, and modernity will take a long time. At present, China and many other late developers are still bogged down by countless mighty problems, which make transitions very painful to say the least.

Still, there is no way to overestimate the role of the developed world in what is happening. After all, the existing world order is centered on the developed nations. They collectively control most wealth and the biggest markets. As the pie expands, the few rich nations are the biggest beneficiaries. What is more, they continue to act as an engine of growth as well as a catalyst for change. Without doubt, the developed nations will continue to exert the biggest influences as time passes.

All things considered, the late developers should continue to learn from the developed countries, whose experiences and lessons are relevant in countless ways. After all, development is a human issue. In many ways, what is happening inside the developing nations simply follows the growth trails of the developed world.

For a long time, the idea of learning from the early developers did not get enough attention or even was rejected. Now, more people realize that development experiences are of universal value; this represents a basic change. It is this new spirit of learning that has directly promoted quick growth in many late developers. China is one example of making progress through learning.

Challenges

Challenges are plentiful as well. The vast development gaps remain a key challenge. New conflicts emerge everywhere. As one example, trade friction has increased sharply even though record-breaking trade has brought unprecedented opportunities and prosperity. To handle trade disputes, nationalistic protectionist measures are still widely used, and there is still a strong Cold War mentality.

Furthermore, the vast economic gaps have produced more adverse consequences. In particular, some extremists wish to address their woes by employing violence. The terrorist acts in New York City and London took place largely in this environment, showing, among other things, the urgent need to close development gaps.

Only after the underdeveloped nations gain reasonable growth and prosperity will the world walk out of the old traps of poverty and conflict. As a Chinese saying goes, "The way to protect the rich to the fullest is to help the poor gain a better life." Indeed, with a more progressive mindset, the developed world would be able to make more contributions to global development in the next stage.

Despite all the imperfections, the convergent movement of global civilizations cannot be reversed. A new world power balance will have to replace the old one. Furthermore, this new world order will emerge gradually and most likely indirectly. This is so simply because military conflicts in the old will no longer do nations any good. Indeed, as more developing nations achieve progress, life on this planet will be more peaceful and rational.

This Small Book

This book examines China's new lessons and their implications for the world. The aim is to identify the key factors that will promote more positive changes for China and for peoples everywhere.

Despite all the changes, China's fundamental weakness is still the overextended, self-appointed bureaucracy, which is inherently self-serving. Moreover, countless government officials employ the unchallenged state power to enrich themselves. In the past five years alone, some 200,000 corrupt officials have been arrested. Unlimited bureaucratic power is the mother of corruption.

To abolish this massive bureaucracy remains the number one task for the Chinese civilization. To move ahead, China must rebuild its government, society, and economy completely. So far, China has taken the very first step, the most significant one, in this brave new direction. Getting the job done remains a mighty task.

When I wrote this book, I had two convictions. The first was that studying China's new development in relation to global development might help one better understand our changing world as well as opportunities and challenges in the new century. The second conviction was that the lessons from China are universally meaningful, for they concern people's lives as well as development issues. Above all, development is a global issue that affects lives everywhere.

This book consists of 26 chapters, which are organized into eight parts:

I. China's New Role in the World
II. The Yuan, Trade, and Investment
III. China's Fast-Changing Society, Politics, and Economy
IV. China's Banking, Insurance, and Stock Market Reforms
V. Chinese Multinationals vs. Global Giants
VI. The Taiwan Issue: Current Affairs and Trends
VII. India vs. China: Moving Ahead at the Same Time; and
VIII. The Japan-China Issue: Evolving Relations in Light of History

China and the New World Order:

How Entrepreneurship, Globalization, and Borderless Business
are Reshaping China and the World

by George Zhibin Gu
Foreword by William Ratliff
Publisher: Fultus; October 2006; 248 pages

© 2006 George Zhibin Gu
Editorial Archive

Author George Zhibin Gu is a journalist/consultant based in China. He has written three other books: 1. China’s Global Reach: Markets, Multinationals and Globalization (Fultus, 2006); 2. Made in China: National and Business Players and Challengers under Globalization and Capitalism (English edition forthcoming, 2007); and 3. China Beyond Deng: Reform in the PRC (McFarland, 1991)
法报评说中国企业“走出去”的风险和机遇
来源：新华社（特约稿）
　　法国《世界报》１０日刊登了该报驻上海记者布里斯·佩德罗莱蒂的一篇文章，题为《中国进军世界》，摘编如下：
　　２００６年中国企业在海外不断并购并扩大投资范围。这一扩张虽然伴随着风险与失败，却有利于企业提高管理水平。
　　中国移动如果能以５３亿美元成功收购位于卢森堡的电信运营商米雷康姆，那将成为中国企业海外并购的最大一笔交易，并使这个中国电信领域的龙头老大打入米雷康姆公司占据优势的非洲、拉丁美洲和亚洲市场。
　　米雷康姆公司认为中国移动开价低，使中国移动继２００５年并购巴基斯坦电信公司（ＰＴＣＬ）未果后再次失利。不过中国移动又开始寻找下一个猎物。与此情况相同的还有中国万向集团，该集团因蓬勃发展的中国汽车市场而成为大众和通用汽车公司一流的在华零配件生产商。在企图收购美国德尔福公司资产未果后，这家私营企业又将目标对准美国福特公司准备放弃的部分产业。
　　世界第三大集装箱生产企业、上海国际港务集团正在谈判收购比利时泽布吕赫港口码头４０％股份一事。该集团总裁向中国媒体宣布他们已为从现在起到２０１０年之前的海外参股准备了相当于１亿欧元的资金。
　　２００６年８月，日本太阳能电池生产商ＭＳＫ公司被它原先的客户中国太阳电池领军企业尚德太阳能电力有限公司收购。该公司２００１年由一位从澳大利亚归国的中国大学生创建。尚德公司因２００５年在纽约上市而取得了必要的发展资金。
　　波士顿咨询集团在最近的一份报告中列出快速发展经济体百家“新全球挑战者”名单，名列其中的中国企业不下４４家。其中包括还涉足汽车制造业的充电电池生产商比亚迪公司。
　　中国企业越来越引人注目地出现在国外，成为人们议论的重要话题并使人们对“黄祸”的担心再度出现。急于求成的中国企业首选方案是收购现成公司的资产或整个企业，目的是要保障自然资源的供应，获取技术经验和品牌形象，或者收购竞争对手或供应商。
　　最能说明这一现象的是中国对外直接投资增长迅速：２００５年达到１２３亿美元，较２００４年增长１２３％；２００６年估计在１５０亿到２００亿美元之间。中国官方媒体甚至认为到２０１０年中国的海外直接投资会出现一倍或两倍的年增长。
　　中国对外直接投资的数额很难统计：一部分内地资金经由香港或其他逃税天堂又回流到中国。而香港仍与内地分开统计。根据联合国贸发会议的数据，香港２００５年对外直接投资为３２０亿美元。香港已成为在港设点的中国企业向海外发展的优质平台。因此，香港对外直接投资中包含内地一些国有或半国有企业的部分海外投资，比如联想集团或中国海洋石油总公司。
　　按百分比计算，中国对外直接投资（香港地区不计算在内）２００５年仅占全世界对外投资总额的１．６％。但在亚洲，按实际投资数额来说，中国已经超过了新加坡和韩国，仅次于日本（２００５年对外直接投资达４００亿美元）。
　　从很多方面来看，中国企业登陆国外是由于世界各地的跨国集团纷纷涌向中国，每年向中国投资６００亿美元，对越来越多的中国本土企业形成威胁。而这些往往是国内最优秀的企业。中国政府由此意识到，必须把自己的队伍拉到国际战场上锻炼，才能使他们在本国市场上更具竞争力。
　　这正是国务院国有资产监督管理委员会２００３年提出“走出去”战略的目的。该战略主要针对未全部对外国资本开放的战略性部门，比如电信、军工和能源领域。国资委主任李融荣最近对媒体重申，要从国资委负责监管的１６１家企业中培育出“３０到５０家拥有自主知识产权和品牌、具有国际竞争力的企业集团”。
　　近年来，中国高层制定了保障自然资源供应、特别是石油供应的战略：中国最大的三家国有石油企业，中石油公司（中石油集团在香港的子公司）、中石化集团、中海油集团连同中信集团仅２００６年就在海外投资１００多亿美元。其中包括两次数额巨大的并购：中石化收购俄罗斯的乌德穆尔特石油公司和中信收购加拿大国家能源公司在哈萨克斯坦的石油资产。
　　在其他领域，中国政府只是密切关注着海外投资的发展变化，并未进行协调或提供支持。所以国务院在２００６年１０月发布了最初的对外投资指导性文件，要求通过各驻外使馆对海外投资行为加强监管，提供更多支持。
　　中国还在考虑使巨额外汇储备多元化，比如建立一个像新加坡淡马锡控股有限公司那样的国际投资机构。
　　中国目前还远不能像当年的日本和韩国帮助自己的企业发展那样，为有意参与全球化的中国企业提供支持和良好的条件。中国投资咨询专家顾志斌 George Zhibin Gu 在《中国的全球影响力 China's Global Reach: Markets, Multinationals, and Globalization》一书中指出：“当日本企业把他们的汽车、电子产品和家用电器推向全世界的时候，他们当时所面临的情况截然不同：他们的国内市场不向世界开放，这让日本企业可以在本国实现丰厚的利润。”
　　顾志斌预计中国企业需要“１０年学习期”才足以应对进军国际所伴随的风险。中国企业的“后方阵地”同样薄弱：大多数公司负债累累，好几家银行传出大型公司无力还贷的丑闻，而且中国市场往往处于饱和与混乱状态。
　　与印度同行不同，中国企业较少进入金融市场，也较少受制于股东的压力。即使有些企业在香港或纽约上市，中国的资产管理仍然缺乏透明度。国有企业部分或全部私有化都由企业领导说了算，中国企业的产权模糊不清。除国家外，地区和市政府也可以成为大型准国企的股东，他们有时会插手并干涉企业事务，这些都是不确定因素。像华为公司或万向公司这样的私企，为了躲避“官僚主义因素”的干扰，也倾向于对自己的管理方式密而不宣。
　　在这种情况下，国际经验和管理水平不足成为中国企业走出去寻找国外合作伙伴的主要原因。根据ＩＢＭ中国商业价值研究院为中国企业全球化报告所做的一项民意调查，上述原因与技术原因一起被中国企业列为走出去的第二大原因，开拓新市场被排在第一位。ＩＢＭ中国商业价值研究院院长毕艾伦认为，渴望国际化的中国企业必须“拥有一定数量的国际人才”。
　　该报告认为中国５００强企业中只有６０家能够面对国际化的考验。由于中国企业选择合并－收购这条看似捷径实则艰险重重的道路，它们所面临的风险更大。跨国交易如果失败，代价可能非常惨痛。ＴＣＬ就是一例。２００４年它收购法国汤姆森公司电视业务后经营失败，蒙受损失。而它的竞争对手们却通过整体协调、稳步发展而逐步壮大，比如海信集团把在匈牙利生产的平板电视卖到法国。这家青岛的国营企业通过收购地方企业而发展壮大起来。
　　有一点确定无疑：经历国内和国际市场双重挑战后能够生存下来的中国企业将是令人生畏的。而在此期间，竞争将会更加残酷。