Russians Predict US will Attack Iran Next Week

I flipped on Air America this afternoon at work. I was bored, and I've been wondering who replaced Al Franken. The Thom Hartmann show was in progress. I wasn't expecting more, really, than the usual spin about the corrupt administration, frustration with neocon impunity and so on. But no, Thom was talking about a "US Plan to attack Iran on April 6th". My worst nightmare! And it was discussed seriously, for two hours.

Hartmann cited an article on inteldaily.com as his source. I pulled it up while he was speaking. He stated that the internet is buzzing with discussion of this prediction while US Media has not mentioned it. I found this same article on numerous websites and blogs around the country. The subject is also covered by various German, French and Italian internet periodicals. But it can be traced to an article by Andrei Uglanov in the Russian Weekly, Argumenty Nedell. In brief, the article says that Russian Generals are predicting that the US will bomb Iran on April 6th using tactical nukes to take out their nuclear and military installations and to create a chaotic and fearful situation where the populace will accept a more compliant (to American concerns) government. I suggest you follow the link above to get a more complete translation.

There is a reiteration of the article featured on March 19th, According to a Russian Expert, The Pentagon will Attack Iranian Military Targets, featured in RIA Novosti, a Russian International News Portal. This was followed by an interpretive interview with a Russian General Ivachov on March 21st, Russian Military Expert Says Iran Will be Attacked at the Beginning of April, also in RIA Novosti. These articles were featured in the French, German and Spanish versions of RIA Novosti, but not the English one. For a rough English translation of the second article, go here.

So this is kind of freaky, really. The Russians say we are going to attack, now, pretty much. Though there was lots of sharing this info on the net for a few days, I haven't seen the prediction anywhere else except in reference to these articles. RIA Novosti is the Russian Government sponsored, or at least Government -approved- news source. Russia has strong diplomatic and business ties with Iran, thus they definitely have an significant incentive to want to avert the predicted action. And I don't think any country actually supports such an attack because one likely outcome is a world wide depression. The Western European nations are particularly open to international opinion, and at the same time, they have, from the start, disapproved of the US invasion and occupation of Iraq, Nor do I think anyone (except maybe George Bush and some of his neocon cronies) really believes that the US can actually control Iran with a puppet government or any other way. So I really think that the Russians are stirring the pot in hopes of bringing up some international support for an initiative to somehow avert an attack on Iran.

Currently, US warships are conducting military exercises off the coast of Iran. [1] According to Radio Free Europe, there is "no pressure intended". [2] But Canada.com knows better. [3] Wonder what it looks like? CNN provides details and a map. [4] Who knows what those British soldiers were doing in (or around) Iranian territory when the Iranians took them prisoner. Tony Blair is going toe to toe with Iran over a matter of less than a mile and a half distance to determine whether these soldiers really were illegally violating Iranian space or not. [5] Formalities aside, one can't help but ask "What are all those military people and resources doing, just at the edge of Iranian territory, give or take a mile." The president tells us, he's not going to attack, but then why are the warships in the Persian Gulf? A columnist on the Op-Ed page of the D&C wrote published a column to relate her relief that the Iran crisis was over now that we are engaging them with diplomacy. But one meeting Iraq hardly qualifies as a diplomatic coup. Maybe she thinks abducting some Iranian diplomats in Iraq, and then engaging in military exercises off the Iranian coast is diplomacy. More likely, she just hasn't thought it through.

According to General Wesley Clark, in an interview on Democracy Now a few weeks ago [6], said that there has been a plan in place to invade Iran since shortly after September 11, 2001. He said that 10 days after 9/11, while he was at the pentagon, a general approached him with the information that a memo was going around naming 7 countries that would be overthrown in the next 5 years, with Iran as the final target. This is the kind of data that gives credibility to the 9/11 conspiracy theories. Leaving that aside, Clark appears to be speaking to DN because he strongly opposes an invasion of Iran, and is very concerned that the Bush Administration will proceed in opposition to all reason. Clark's website is StopIranWar.com. And just today, I got an email from him, restating the crisis and opening a further discussion of the issue. Funny, how the Generals on all sides agree.

Yes, I think the Russians are stirring the pot. But, even if they don't know anything more than I do, they have good reason. I was thinking they are reporting, essentially what they might do in our situation. It would be nice if they would actively pursue General Ivachov's suggestion to call an emergency meeting of the United Nations and attempt to get some kind of consensus on restraining the US. But the UN has been manipulated by the US for so long, perhaps it isn't possible in the real world. Certainly all the Arab countries and Western Europe would join in if they were to express their true opinions. In fact, the Arabs are taking action now. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia strongly condemned the US occupation of Iraq at the Arab summit this week [7], and canceled an upcoming dinner in DC. [8] Apparently the Americans were "confused" by his action. [9] However, his Foreign Minister, Prince Saud backed him up. And the other Arab nations, including the U.A.E. where the largest US base on the Arabian Peninsula is located, asserted that they would not support any aggression toward Iran. [10]

So, whether or not the Russians have insider information, the world is on edge over the US threat to Iran. The threat is imminent and deadly. Congress has not taken the steps necessary to restrain Bush and his cronies. Tony Blair seems ready to go to the mat for his buddy Bush one more time. Congress is maneuvering to create a soft pen for him, and think they have him on the run. But who knows what he will do on the Middle Eastern front if he feels cornered on the home front. He has consistently rejected the reality of his actions and refused to take responsibility for their consequences. The only question that remains is what can we do here. What will we do in the next week or two to reign in our out of control government. It is time to act.

*** Thanks to Juan Cole, for the Saudi references.