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Israeli officials leak information on high-level government discussions on the establishment of a nuclear energy program, and Security Watch sounds out Israeli analysts on the implications. <!--break--> 03 August 2007 By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (03/07/07) Israeli government officials are giving "serious consideration" to the establishment of a nuclear energy reactor, while seeking ways to prevent the disclosure of the alleged covert Israeli nuclear arsenal. According to a report this week in Hebrew daily Yediot Ahranoth, the Prime Minister's Office and Infrastructure Ministry officials are seriously reconsidering long-standing plans for building a nuclear generation capacity. According to Yediot, energy experts estimate the reactor would take eight years to complete at a cost of US$2 billion, a forecast that appears overly optimistic. Details of plans for the location and capacity of the proposed reactor were not spelled out in the article. In a February interview, the CEO of the Israel Electric Corporation, Uri Bin-Nun, quoting Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) head Gideon Frank, said Israel was planning the fabrication of a 2000MW reactor for electricity generation. The IAEC, which advises the government on nuclear policy, responded by expressing its support for a new reactor while cautioning that a decision had yet to be made. The renewed consideration being given to an overt nuclear program appears to be responsive both to growing energy demand, developments in the Iranian program and a series of nuclear announcements throughout the region since September, including from neighbors Jordan and Egypt. The head of Haifa University's National Security Studies Center, Professor Gabriel Ben-Dor, told ISN Security Watch: "I understand that the decision has not been made yet, it is just being contemplated. And because there are geo-strategic implications the government is very cautious and very slow about taking the final decision." "Anything, from the Israeli view, that diverts attention from Iran as the main menace, the main source of danger, is bad for Israel," he said. "So I think that this has come about bone fide, not because of any strategic considerations, but because of energy problems that Israel faces." Hidden program Responsibility for nuclear development in Israel falls under the aegis of the IAEC, which reports directly to the prime minister and represents Israel on the world stage. Israel is a member of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on a number of issues but has refused to sign on to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This would force Israel to forego military nuclear development and allow inspections of the Dimona reactor complex, where the current covert weapons program is allegedly based. It would also lead to the comprehensive logging of sensitive nuclear materiel and technologies, exposing the long-term role of international suppliers in hidden nuclear development. Israel acknowledges extensive atomic research at its Soreq and Dimona reactor and research facilities. The Soreq facility operates under IAEA safeguards, while the Nuclear Research Center at Dimona does not. Galili Center for Strategy and National Security Director Dr Reuven Pedatzur told ISN Security Watch: "It won't be open nuclear development even if Israel will decide to go in the direction of a reactor for electricity." "If there will be a real and practical plan for building a reactor, Israel will make a condition that if there will be international supervision it will only be of the civilian reactors and not of Dimona." Unconfirmed open-source material speaks of facilities involved in Israel's covert weapons program in the north of the country - in particular in Haifa and surrounding areas - and nuclear weapons dumps and missile deployments in various parts of the country. Work is planned on a large submarine base for Israel's new Dolphin submarines in Haifa Bay. Analysts are split on whether the Dolphin's Harpoon missile system is nuclear-capable. The size of the Israeli atomic arsenal is unknown, with estimates tending to vary between 100-200 warheads, maintained in stockpiles rather than a state of immediate readiness. Ambiguous intent Israel remains extremely sensitive about the exposure of its thinly veiled nuclear weapons program. On 1 July, nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu, whose movement and contacts are severely restricted by court order, was sent back to prison for six months over unauthorized meetings with journalists and others. Since the establishment of the Israeli program, government and military planners have largely held to the opinion that the current policy of dissimulation has been successful in preventing any serious consideration of international oversight of hidden elements of its nuclear program. Asked why Israel has chosen to maintain its current policy of nuclear ambiguity, Pedatzur said: "It is a win-win situation because if you are not part of the NPT there is no supervision and if you are not declaring that you have nuclear weapons there are no sanctions from the UN. […] So for the time being this is the best policy for Israel." "The chances that Israel will join the NPT are very, very, very slim," he said. It is clear that the Iranian nuclear crisis is both a significant spur to Israeli atomic development plans and a strong contributing factor to possible future moves to end the ambiguity policy, which was agreed with the US in the 1960s. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert came as close to publicly admitting the existence of an Israeli weapons capacity as any Israeli leader in a German television interview in December, saying that Iran was "aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia." Israel has a clear interest in intimating, if not openly admitting, its possession of nuclear arms in a manner that encourages further pressure on the Islamic Republic without threatening to exacerbate tensions with Arab states, which have long-called for Israel's accession to the NPT. The failure of the international community to build significant pressure on India and Pakistan to sign on to the NPT since unveiling their nuclear weapons capacities in the late 1990s likely serves as a precedent for Israeli officials arguing for the development of an atomic energy program. "The United States agreed that India will separate its nuclear program into two different [programs], one civilian the other military. And regarding the military part there will be no international supervision and no UN supervision. I believe that Israel will try the same idea," Pedatzur said. Threat posture Given the public perception that the possession of nuclear weapons is a key deterrent, and closely monitored secrecy laws, there is little domestic debate in Israel on the nuclear issue. "The Israeli population understands that an open discourse would involve Israel in precisely the dilemmas it has been trying to escape," Ben-Dor said. "A public dialogue would either reveal that there are nuclear weapons in this country, which would then invite and legitimize other countries in trying to catch up," he said. "The other option would be in a public dialogue to reveal that we do not have nuclear weapons. [That] would be bad for the deterrent posture of Israel." "The nuclear issue is taboo in Israel," Pedatzur agreed, noting, "For the Israeli public there is no reason to discuss this because this is the policy and they [military/governments] know what they are doing and there is no need to even start debating this issue." Pedatzur, who is critical of this attitude, argued, "There is no civil society in Israel, this is the bottom line. We live in a state of undeclared militarism. Israeli society is not a civilian society regarding defense and security issues." Strained relations There has been a significant rise in tensions between Israel and Egypt over the nuclear issue in recent months, with Egypt announcing plans for its own energy reactor program. Spy scandals, allegations of an Israeli massacre in 1967 and Israeli concerns regarding Gaza smuggling have also soured relations. In June, Egyptian nuclear scientist Mohammed Sayed Saber was sentenced to 25 years in jail for allegedly passing classified documents stolen from his workplace at the Egyptian Atomic Energy Agency's (AEA) Inshas facility to the Mossad (Israeli intelligence) in return for payment. The sensitivity of Israeli atomic development plans is further underlined by the preparation of a likely reactor site at Shvita close to the Egyptian border. Though political and security considerations may ultimately rule this out, there appears to be significant scope for atomic cooperation between the Israeli and Egyptian programs, building on growing energy ties such as a recently signed natural gas deal. The Yedioth report said that Israeli officials were seriously considering "building the plant in cooperation with a neighboring country." Such a deal would likely await successful Palestinian-Israeli final-status negotiations. Asked what the impact of a new Israeli reactor might be on the country's relations with Egypt, Ben-Dor said: "Not very good. Egypt has been obsessively concerned with the Israeli nuclear issue and despite the reasonably good relations between Egypt and Israel, Egypt has tried time and again to embarrass Israel on the nuclear issue because of its own concerns." "The news of a possible additional Israeli reactor will not be welcomed in Egypt, and that might be another reason why the project might not take off," he said. Arms race If Israel presses ahead with plans for a new reactor this would add to the growing trend towards regional proliferation, which might, in turn, spark a full-scale nuclear arms race. Any new reactor would have an uncertain relation to Israel's covert arms program while potentially strengthening the material and technological basis for a major future expansion and/or modernization of this presumed atomic arsenal. "The fear is that various other countries in the region will follow in Israel's footsteps and also develop nuclear energy programs of their own," Ben-Dor said. "And we all know that once a nuclear energy program gets underway it is difficult to make the distinction between the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and military developments and ramifications." Asked to relate to fears of regional nuclear proliferation, he said, "If the Iranian program takes off and gets close to a nuclear weapon […] then there will be a nuclear arms race" as other regional states would feel threatened. "So these countries might then be pushed, prompted, virtually forced into a nuclear arms race which they have been trying to avoid for many years," he said. Pedatzur agreed, adding that Arab states "do not view Israel as a threat, even though they know that Israel is a nuclear power. But Iran is regarded as a real threat." Pedatzur believes that it is possible that Israel could push ahead with a new reactor, while Ben-Dor expressed serious doubts. "I think there is a combination of interests and factors which militate against it […] strategic, diplomatic and psychological. There are also others: environmental considerations and ecological and health considerations." Should the plans develop further, Ben-Dor believes that "various [Israeli] interest groups will come to the fore and will try to stop the project. And I think they have a very good chance of doing so." Dr Dominic Moran is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in the Middle East. http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=17940
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<p>Israeli officials leak information on high-level government discussions on the establishment of a nuclear energy program, and Security Watch sounds out Israeli analysts on the implications.</p> <!--break--><p>03 August 2007 </p> <p>By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (03/07/07) </p> <p>Israeli government officials are giving "serious consideration" to the establishment of a nuclear energy reactor, while seeking ways to prevent the disclosure of the alleged covert Israeli nuclear arsenal. </p> <p>According to a report this week in Hebrew daily </p> <p>Yediot Ahranoth, the Prime Minister's Office and Infrastructure Ministry officials are seriously reconsidering long-standing plans for building a nuclear generation capacity. </p> <p>According to Yediot, energy experts estimate the reactor would take eight years to complete at a cost of US$2 billion, a forecast that appears overly optimistic.<br /> Details of plans for the location and capacity of the proposed reactor were not spelled out in the article. </p> <p>In a February interview, the CEO of the Israel Electric Corporation, Uri Bin-Nun, quoting Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) head Gideon Frank, said Israel was planning the fabrication of a 2000MW reactor for electricity generation.<br /> The IAEC, which advises the government on nuclear policy, responded by expressing its support for a new reactor while cautioning that a decision had yet to be made. </p> <p>The renewed consideration being given to an overt nuclear program appears to be responsive both to growing energy demand, developments in the Iranian program and a series of nuclear announcements throughout the region since September, including from neighbors Jordan and Egypt. </p> <p>The head of Haifa University's National Security Studies Center, Professor Gabriel Ben-Dor, told ISN Security Watch: "I understand that the decision has not been made yet, it is just being contemplated. And because there are geo-strategic implications the government is very cautious and very slow about taking the final decision." </p> <p>"Anything, from the Israeli view, that diverts attention from Iran as the main menace, the main source of danger, is bad for Israel," he said. "So I think that this has come about bone fide, not because of any strategic considerations, but because of energy problems that Israel faces." </p> <p>Hidden program </p> <p>Responsibility for nuclear development in Israel falls under the aegis of the IAEC, which reports directly to the prime minister and represents Israel on the world stage.<br /> Israel is a member of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on a number of issues but has refused to sign on to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). </p> <p>This would force Israel to forego military nuclear development and allow inspections of the Dimona reactor complex, where the current covert weapons program is allegedly based. It would also lead to the comprehensive logging of sensitive nuclear materiel and technologies, exposing the long-term role of international suppliers in hidden nuclear development. </p> <p>Israel acknowledges extensive atomic research at its Soreq and Dimona reactor and research facilities. The Soreq facility operates under IAEA safeguards, while the Nuclear Research Center at Dimona does not. </p> <p>Galili Center for Strategy and National Security Director Dr Reuven Pedatzur told ISN Security Watch: "It won't be open nuclear development even if Israel will decide to go in the direction of a reactor for electricity." </p> <p>"If there will be a real and practical plan for building a reactor, Israel will make a condition that if there will be international supervision it will only be of the civilian reactors and not of Dimona." </p> <p>Unconfirmed open-source material speaks of facilities involved in Israel's covert weapons program in the north of the country - in particular in Haifa and surrounding areas - and nuclear weapons dumps and missile deployments in various parts of the country. </p> <p>Work is planned on a large submarine base for Israel's new Dolphin submarines in Haifa Bay. Analysts are split on whether the Dolphin's Harpoon missile system is nuclear-capable. </p> <p>The size of the Israeli atomic arsenal is unknown, with estimates tending to vary between 100-200 warheads, maintained in stockpiles rather than a state of immediate readiness. </p> <p>Ambiguous intent </p> <p>Israel remains extremely sensitive about the exposure of its thinly veiled nuclear weapons program. </p> <p>On 1 July, nuclear whistleblower Mordechai Vanunu, whose movement and contacts are severely restricted by court order, was sent back to prison for six months over unauthorized meetings with journalists and others. </p> <p>Since the establishment of the Israeli program, government and military planners have largely held to the opinion that the current policy of dissimulation has been successful in preventing any serious consideration of international oversight of hidden elements of its nuclear program. </p> <p>Asked why Israel has chosen to maintain its current policy of nuclear ambiguity, Pedatzur said: "It is a win-win situation because if you are not part of the NPT there is no supervision and if you are not declaring that you have nuclear weapons there are no sanctions from the UN. […] So for the time being this is the best policy for Israel." </p> <p>"The chances that Israel will join the NPT are very, very, very slim," he said.<br /> It is clear that the Iranian nuclear crisis is both a significant spur to Israeli atomic development plans and a strong contributing factor to possible future moves to end the ambiguity policy, which was agreed with the US in the 1960s. </p> <p>Prime Minister Ehud Olmert came as close to publicly admitting the existence of an Israeli weapons capacity as any Israeli leader in a German television interview in December, saying that Iran was "aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia." </p> <p>Israel has a clear interest in intimating, if not openly admitting, its possession of nuclear arms in a manner that encourages further pressure on the Islamic Republic without threatening to exacerbate tensions with Arab states, which have long-called for Israel's accession to the NPT. </p> <p>The failure of the international community to build significant pressure on India and Pakistan to sign on to the NPT since unveiling their nuclear weapons capacities in the late 1990s likely serves as a precedent for Israeli officials arguing for the development of an atomic energy program. </p> <p>"The United States agreed that India will separate its nuclear program into two different [programs], one civilian the other military. And regarding the military part there will be no international supervision and no UN supervision. I believe that Israel will try the same idea," Pedatzur said. </p> <p>Threat posture </p> <p>Given the public perception that the possession of nuclear weapons is a key deterrent, and closely monitored secrecy laws, there is little domestic debate in Israel on the nuclear issue. </p> <p>"The Israeli population understands that an open discourse would involve Israel in precisely the dilemmas it has been trying to escape," Ben-Dor said. "A public dialogue would either reveal that there are nuclear weapons in this country, which would then invite and legitimize other countries in trying to catch up," he said. "The other option would be in a public dialogue to reveal that we do not have nuclear weapons. [That] would be bad for the deterrent posture of Israel." </p> <p>"The nuclear issue is taboo in Israel," Pedatzur agreed, noting, "For the Israeli public there is no reason to discuss this because this is the policy and they [military/governments] know what they are doing and there is no need to even start debating this issue." </p> <p>Pedatzur, who is critical of this attitude, argued, "There is no civil society in Israel, this is the bottom line. We live in a state of undeclared militarism. Israeli society is not a civilian society regarding defense and security issues." </p> <p>Strained relations </p> <p>There has been a significant rise in tensions between Israel and Egypt over the nuclear issue in recent months, with Egypt announcing plans for its own energy reactor program. Spy scandals, allegations of an Israeli massacre in 1967 and Israeli concerns regarding Gaza smuggling have also soured relations. </p> <p>In June, Egyptian nuclear scientist Mohammed Sayed Saber was sentenced to 25 years in jail for allegedly passing classified documents stolen from his workplace at the Egyptian Atomic Energy Agency's (AEA) Inshas facility to the Mossad (Israeli intelligence) in return for payment. </p> <p>The sensitivity of Israeli atomic development plans is further underlined by the preparation of a likely reactor site at Shvita close to the Egyptian border.<br /> Though political and security considerations may ultimately rule this out, there appears to be significant scope for atomic cooperation between the Israeli and Egyptian programs, building on growing energy ties such as a recently signed natural gas deal. </p> <p>The Yedioth report said that Israeli officials were seriously considering "building the plant in cooperation with a neighboring country." Such a deal would likely await successful Palestinian-Israeli final-status negotiations. </p> <p>Asked what the impact of a new Israeli reactor might be on the country's relations with Egypt, Ben-Dor said: "Not very good. Egypt has been obsessively concerned with the Israeli nuclear issue and despite the reasonably good relations between Egypt and Israel, Egypt has tried time and again to embarrass Israel on the nuclear issue because of its own concerns." </p> <p>"The news of a possible additional Israeli reactor will not be welcomed in Egypt, and that might be another reason why the project might not take off," he said. </p> <p>Arms race </p> <p>If Israel presses ahead with plans for a new reactor this would add to the growing trend towards regional proliferation, which might, in turn, spark a full-scale nuclear arms race. </p> <p>Any new reactor would have an uncertain relation to Israel's covert arms program while potentially strengthening the material and technological basis for a major future expansion and/or modernization of this presumed atomic arsenal. </p> <p>"The fear is that various other countries in the region will follow in Israel's footsteps and also develop nuclear energy programs of their own," Ben-Dor said. "And we all know that once a nuclear energy program gets underway it is difficult to make the distinction between the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and military developments and ramifications." </p> <p>Asked to relate to fears of regional nuclear proliferation, he said, "If the Iranian program takes off and gets close to a nuclear weapon […] then there will be a nuclear arms race" as other regional states would feel threatened.<br /> "So these countries might then be pushed, prompted, virtually forced into a nuclear arms race which they have been trying to avoid for many years," he said. </p> <p>Pedatzur agreed, adding that Arab states "do not view Israel as a threat, even though they know that Israel is a nuclear power. But Iran is regarded as a real threat."<br /> Pedatzur believes that it is possible that Israel could push ahead with a new reactor, while Ben-Dor expressed serious doubts. "I think there is a combination of interests and factors which militate against it […] strategic, diplomatic and psychological. There are also others: environmental considerations and ecological and health considerations." </p> <p>Should the plans develop further, Ben-Dor believes that "various [Israeli] interest groups will come to the fore and will try to stop the project. And I think they have a very good chance of doing so." </p> <p>Dr Dominic Moran is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in the Middle East. </p> <p><a href="http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=17940">http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=17940</a></p>
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